I’ve analyzed the financials of the “main three” candidates and polling released last week I’ve found very interesting data on this.
(All amounts are from the Orestar page of the Secretary of State which you can find HERE simply type in the last name of the candidate and check the “candidate” box)
As of this writing (4/10/18) here are the rounded figures for contributions and expenditures for each:
Knute Buehler – Contributions (2017-2018 current) – $3,052,000
Expenditures (2017-2018 current) – $1,200,000
Greg Wooldridge – Contributions (2018, none from 2017) – $176,420
Expenditures (2018, none from 2017) – $10,125
Sam Carpenter – Contributions (2017-2018 current) – $64,610
Expenditures (2017-2018 current) – $126,000
Now let’s look at the Triton Poll that was released last week.
The first portion which was a straight up “name ID” question:
Buehler – 22.9%
Carpenter – 23.1%
Wooldridge – 4.2%
Not Sure/Don’t Know – 49.7%
After several questions about the candidates the “name ID” question again and the results were:
Buehler – 17.3%
Carpenter – 38%
Wooldridge – 11%
Not Sure/Don’t Know – 33.6%
Lastly, each of the three were put up against Gov. Kate Brown and these were the results:
Buehler vs. Brown – 45.5% to 41% (undecided – 13.6%)
Carpenter vs. Brown – 45.8% to 40.5% (undecided – 13.7%)
Wooldridge vs. Brown – 47.4% to 42.4% (undecided – 10.2%)
All three are in a statistical tie against vs. Kate Brown and with a + or – of 4% it’s dead even.
Now this is why I bring up the money portion at the top of this post.
No matter which number you look at in the polling, Buehler has spent $1.2 million and is at either 23% or 17% name ID depending on which number you want to use, and 45% against Gov. Brown. That’s over a period of nearly 1 whole year.
In Carpenter’s case, having got into the race in the fall, he’s spent just over $125,000 to get to either 23% or 38% name ID depending on which number you want to use, and virtually the same 45+% against Brown.
The final candidate to get in, late February, Wooldridge has spent just over $10,000 to get to either 4% or 11% name ID, again depending on which number you want to use and is in a virtual tie against Brown with the other 2 candidates.
That all has to make each of us wonder which candidate is getting “the most bang for the buck” when it comes to fundraising and spending!